tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8755035051021414780.post2626588101106177453..comments2023-11-17T03:55:40.736-05:00Comments on Ink Spots: Candide's take at COIN in Afghanistan (UPDATED)Lilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18373158801523577733noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8755035051021414780.post-27744945086871923672009-08-06T22:18:06.981-04:002009-08-06T22:18:06.981-04:00I think that people are actually putting some thou...I think that people are actually putting some thought into governance and anti-corruption, we just haven't been doing it enough and those who do it aren't sharing enough. <br /><br />This discussion goes straight to Kilcullen's point about being overly focused on a top down approach. I also think though that we've also focused on bribery and overall petty corruption (I don't like the term petty but in the corruption world, that's what you use to refer to small bribes, theft of small things etc). In short, we've provided ministers with mentors and we're trying to train police and ANA to not solicit bribes etc. <br /><br />As far as I know though, we're not doing much for mid-level public finance officials and managers of key ministries and administrations. <br /><br />In short, we haven't seen discussion of a GEMAP type of program in Afghanistan (Governance and Economic Management Program, look at gemapliberia.org). In Liberia, this involved giving international officials co-signing authority in the public finance and resource ministries (timber, diamonds and mines etc). This helped to create mechanisms for accountability.Lilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18373158801523577733noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8755035051021414780.post-65535520942935089192009-08-06T18:51:52.812-04:002009-08-06T18:51:52.812-04:00With all pardons to Voltaire, if anyone would have...With all pardons to Voltaire, if anyone would have been akin to Candide in a picaresque, it would be Kilcullen.<br /><br />SNLIIAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8755035051021414780.post-75735586050826738112009-08-06T17:00:00.258-04:002009-08-06T17:00:00.258-04:00el-Belle -- You'll be pleased to know that 80%...el-Belle -- You'll be pleased to know that 80% of the Ink Spots crew was at that event, the insurgents swimming amongst the sea of USIP peaceniks. None of us were wearing black pajamas, though, so you probably missed us.Gulliverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12558335790019565924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8755035051021414780.post-58222789107033840402009-08-06T16:55:44.198-04:002009-08-06T16:55:44.198-04:00I actually thought that Wilder was more lucid on a...I actually thought that Wilder was more lucid on accountability, with the major take home that we are just putting too much money into Afghanistan to be able to actually track it and provide oversight, so we should be spending less and having more analysis done about what works, where it does and why. <br /><br />He also pointed to this 1972 RAND report http://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/2005/R967.pdf (which I've only read the summary but looks fascinating) that also points to what I really think the key point of the discussion was- that the US can identify the challenges it aces but hasn't been good at accurately seeing the limits of what we can do about it.<br /><br />The subtext I got from both men is that they see governance/troop levels as a cyclical problem, so the best we can do is try to fight both problems simultaneously (through things like the Partnership model) to try to meet fairly modest objectives. Thats not quiet seeing it as hopeless, but its certainly a dark view.el-Bellehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08357306004014226380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8755035051021414780.post-90200232511728276642009-08-06T16:54:08.561-04:002009-08-06T16:54:08.561-04:00Or cynicism, depending on how you look at it.Or cynicism, depending on how you look at it.Gulliverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12558335790019565924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8755035051021414780.post-25314459821985147572009-08-06T16:52:40.815-04:002009-08-06T16:52:40.815-04:00But isn't the mere fact that we are still in A...But isn't the mere fact that we are still in Afghanistan evidence of optimism?..Almahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11816039020710161677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8755035051021414780.post-80578515108871013122009-08-06T16:06:35.797-04:002009-08-06T16:06:35.797-04:00For those (like me) who absorb information more by...For those (like me) who absorb information more by blunt-force trauma than Gallic subtlety, the full title of <em>Candide</em> was "Candide: Or, Optimism."<br /><br />Two things on this: The first is that I too was struck by the futility of expanding ANSF who are not competent, but also by the impossibility of delaying the expansion of the very same ANSF until such time as they are competent. It seems now that we need approach this, again, with an "ink blot/oil spot" strategy: form small cadres, train them to competence, and then spread those men throughout a number of units to be stood up later with less-trained volunteers. Yes, we eventually need something like 480K ANSF, but it's not going to happen overnight. And even if it did, those 480K wouldn't be close to effective; you'd need double that when factoring in their level of competence.<br /><br />On another note (which you didn't really touch on), it strikes me that the USG might ought to consider putting out some negative statements about Karzai as part of an IO plan to bolster the independence and legitimacy of whatever government emerges from the election. If we indicate now that Karzai is disappointing in X ways, the election is less likely to be viewed as rigged by Washington.<br /><br />Of course, this doesn't solve the problem of widespread corruption and poor governance, but it at least gives an opportunity for what looks like Karzai's inevitable victory to not be ALL bad.<br /><br />Or something like that. I had a mind to consider this further and write something thoughtful, but so much for that.Gulliverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12558335790019565924noreply@blogger.com