It's Not Over in Cote d'Ivoire

The arrest of Laurent Gbagbo today has finally brought the long crisis in Cote d'Ivoire to the front pages of US newspapers.

But,a s Beth Dickinson explains very well here,this doesn't mean that things are over in Cote d'Ivoire. Yes, the recalcitrant loser of November's election has finally been detained by the forces of Alassane Ouattara but it took four long months. Much has happened since Gbagbo refused to step down after the UN and the Ivorian elections commission declared Ouattara the winner of the runoff vote.

Just to give a brief list, the Security Council agreed in December to send two thousand extra troops (they still haven't arrived), the two attack helicopters did arrive (three months late). In January-February, the international community did its best to strangle Gbagbo's resources: ECOWAS cut off his signing authority (this matters because Cote d'Ivoire is a Franc CFA country and therefore partially controlled by the regional central bank) and Ouattara announced a halt to cocoa and coffee exports. This led prices to skyrocket for cocoa futures. Meanwhile, the EU and the US froze Gbagbo's assets. South Africa, whose President seems to call for power-sharing a la Zimbabwe/Kenya every time someone tries to steal an election, finally followed suit on the asset freeze, but only ten days ago.

Last month, the Security Council finally imposed an asset freeze and travel bank on Gbagbo (they had threatened before but not named him or his family/entourage to a list). And finally, the Council told UNOCI and Licorne to really "use all necessary means" to prevent violence.

Still, Gbagbo's arrest today took a lot of support from the French Licorne forces and UNOCI, in particular by responding to the use of heavy weapons in Abidjan. On top of that, Gbagbo has been using a lot of anti-French, anti-UN and anti-foreigner (that is anti-northerner) rhetoric. Many of his supporters are still armed--the Republican Guard in particular has long refused to comply with a UN arms embargo. Not only that but he (and the head of his Young Patriots, Charles Ble Goude) used the months of crisis to recruit more followers, and arm them.

Last month, several hundred people were massacred in Duekoue, which is inhabited mostly by Gbagbo supporters. If this headline didn't make you think "Rwanda", I don't know what will but about 30,000 people had taken refuge in a church compound. This kind of thing could happen again. There has been heavy fighting in Abidjan for days now so we should expect high casualty figures. On top of everything, one million people have fled the fighting and over 100,000 fled to Liberia.

So, it's nice that Cote d'Ivoire is finally getting some attention, it's nice that the Security Council finally did more than threaten sanctions and in fact threw its support behind UNOCI and Licorne (something that many UNOCI and Licorne officials felt had long been lacking) but don't count this one as over yet. Alassane Ouattara gave a nice speech (in French) on how he will work on reconciliation, but it will take a lot of work.

Oh and one more thing, the New York Times' coverage of this crisis, has been abysmal. Why is it that for the first time in months, Adam Nossiter, their West Africa-based reporter-- is actually in Abidjan? Until now, all his articles have relied on wire reports and the byline has been from the safety of Ghana. Why was no one from the times there when the BBC, Le Monde, Reuters, AP, AFP, and others were on the ground, in some cases making it to Duekoue to report on the massacre there?

Ongoing Crisis in Cote d'Ivoire (UPDATED--Heavy Fighting in Abidjan and West)

Amidst the violence in Libya, the ongoing crisis in Cote d'Ivoire' seems to have been forgotten--or at least ignored since it didn't seem much was happening. This week though, things are taking a turn for the more violent. Yesterday, six pro-Ouattara protesters were killed, along with ten pro-Gbagbo soldiers, right as an African Union delegation visited (again) to try and find a solution. Today, fighting erupted in the west of the country.

UPDATE: the BBC reports that heavy fighting has erupted in Abidjan and continues on the border with Liberia

What's the background to all this?

Basically, the country's internationally-recognized President, Alassane Ouattara, is trying to choke off the resources of his predecessor. While the UN Security Council agreed to send 2,000 extra peacekeepers to the country to help ensure security, Ouattara ordered a suspension of cocoa exports. This matters because cocoa is Cote d'Ivoire's biggest source of income (and the country is the world's largest producer of cocoa, for a look a cocoa futures since the crisis began in November, see here).

Since the November elections, the international community has been trying to choke off aincome to election loser Laurent Gbagbo: the EU and the US have imposed sanctions, Switzerland has frozen Gbago and loyalist assets, the ECOWAS central bank has rescinded Gbagbo's authority to spend money, and big Western banks have ceased operations.

In response, Gbagbo has tried to take control of some of the banks but ECOWAS controls the internet-based system for money transfers and they've shut it down. Gbagbo has also requested cocoa exporters to pay in hard cash but even that isn't working so well since many international companies know their governments recognize Ouattara's government (this week the US accepted the credentials of his ambassador to Washington) and they don't want to be sanctioned for supporting Gbagbo. All this to say, banning cocoa exports is one more way to make the Army and civil servants understand that, eventually, Gbagbo won't have enough money to pay their salaries. This has led to a run on banks--for the reasons you would imagine.

So what does this deadlock mean for Ivorian people: well, the economy is in the dumps, the UN reports that 40,000 Ivorians have fled to Liberia--which in itself is an indication of how bad things could get (who flees to Liberia?), and AU mediation is making the terrible recommendation that the two rivals should share power (a la Zimbabwe). ECOWAS has repeatedly toyed with military intervention which is risky because Gbagbo still has a lot of loyal/competent forces. So the question remains, do we just wait until Gabgbo runs out of money and support or do we do something else? Or does that depend on how much violence spreads and how quickly?

AND UPDATE: At what point do UNOCI and the French Licorne forces start using force to implement their mandate to "protect civilians from imminent threat of violence?"

Stolen elections in Cote d'Ivoire (Breaking!)

Wow--it looks like President Gbagbo outright got his friends in the Conseil Consitutionnel to steal the election for him. This is huge, absolutely huge.

The second round, between incumbent Gbagbo and opposition leader Alassane Ouattara was held last week. Elections were supposed to be announced by the Independent Elections Commission by Wednesday but it missed the deadline. Yesterday, the Commission had announced (as the NYT/AP reports) 54.1% for the opposition leader and 45.9% for Gbagbo (the President is in year 1o of his first five year term after, I think 6 delays in elections).

But the Conseil, which is headed by a Gbagbo supporter, invalidated the results, saying the deadline was missed. Today, it announced that it was chucking out 500,00 votes, giving the incumbent victory--by 51.4% of the vote-- despite the fact that:

Those results — which were considered credible by the African Union, the United Nations and the White House — gave opposition leader Alassane Ouattara 54.1 percent of the vote, compared to 45.9 percent for Gbagbo.

It argued that Gbagbo supporters had been intimidated and that those votes were invalid...Meanwhile, the opposition leaders won what observers called a fair elections in neighboring Guinea and Blaise Campaore was "re-elected" in Burkina Faso...

Stay tuned, this could get really bad.

Elections? We Need to Hold Elections? But...Bienvenue en Cote d'Ivoire

As you know, elections in Cote d'Ivoire have been postponed five times in the last five years. Surprise, surprise, it has happened again. What's the reason this time? There is "uncertainty" about the legitimacy of about on million people's place on the voter rolls. You'll remember that elections were formally delayed for the fifth time back in October.

Since then, as you could expect, that voter issue hasn't been addressed. In fact, you could basically say it's made no progress at all except to publicize President Gbagbo's accusations that elections commission officials have found "fraud" on the rolls. Specifically, Gbagbo is claiming that the elections commission has allowed half a million "foreigners" to be on the rolls. Then on Thursday February 11, the government announced that it had stopped reviewing the rolls...the catch? The elections can't be held until the rolls are finalized.

And then on Friday, February 12, President Gbagbo hit the reset button: he dissolved the government and fired the elections commission. Both institutions will reportedly be "reformed" within the week, though in a smaller format. The President says this will make them more effective. He's asked former rebel leader Guillaume Soro to stay on as Prime Minister.

Well, it's been ten days and the country still doesn't have a new government, in large part because the opposition parties have announced that they would request Gbagbo's resignation, not recognize Soro's new government, and demand that the elections commission resume its work (in its previous configuration). As a result, Gbagbo had to temporarily re-instate the Defense and Finance Ministers because Soro has yet to form a government.

Meanwhile, five people were killed by security forces (they opened fire) at a protest on Friday and frustration is mounting. The protests have spread to Bouake (the capital of the rebel-held north where several thousand people marched through the streets, setting fire to cars etc). Protests also erupted in Abidjan and Khorogo. Today, President Blaise Campaore of Burkina Faso will meet with opposition leaders to try and defuse the situation.

Ok, so what does all this mean? I think it means that Ivorian (and international) fears that the electoral process is in jeopardy are pretty well-founded. I think this has pretty serious implications for the Ouagadougou peace process and they're worrisome (MK could write a short dissertation--if he hasn't already--on the fact that Cote d'Ivoire is the only country for which a genocide alert has ever been issued).

I think this confirms that Gbagbo and Soro are reluctant to hold elections because they fear not only that they'll get pushed out but also that they will lose out on currently lucrative arrangements (lucrative for them). And I think that tensions are still so high that this could spell disaster. Combine that with a spineless UN mission, led by a diffident Special Representative of the Secretary General who views his job as requiring nothing more than support for the government, a significantly decreased French presence, and high tension, and you have a pretty volatile mix.

News from the Mano River Union

I wanted to flag some interesting stories from Guinea, Liberia, and Cote d'Ivoire (which along with Sierra Leone, form the Mano River Union).

First, things in Guinea seem to be settling down with the appointment of an opposition Prime Minister and President Camara's agreement to voluntary exile in Burkina Faso. It seems the acting President of Guinea, General Konate successfully worked with Blaise Campaore (the regional mediator) and other regional leaders to convince the wounded Camara to step down. This is a relief for many in the region given fears that Camara's return would spark civil war in Guinea and of course threaten stability in the neighboring countries. The new Prime Minister, Jean-Marie Dore, is an old hand in Guinean politics. This is interesting analysis from BBC on the events unfolding in Guinea.

This brings me my next story. Charles Taylor, after months of providing testimony in his own defense, is undergoing cross examination at his trial in The Hague. The crazy "I'm innocent" stories keep coming but this one was, shall we say, entertaining. Taylor claims he had no part in sending Liberian fighters to Cote d'Ivoire in 2003. I think I need to start reading about the trial more often again because it's a good refresher in Mano River Union history.

This brings me to my final story, this time from Cote d'Ivoire, the last country to join the Union. Most people of course are worried about the elections though I think many forgot about that while they watched the quarter finals of the Africa Cup of Nations yesterday (Algeria beat Cote d'Ivoire). Anyway, back in 2006, the multinational oil company Trafigura brought 500 tons of chemical waste to Abidjan "processing" and disposal. I'm sure you've read about other places where governments and corporations are "working" with developing country governments to "process" and "store" dangerous waste. Anyway, the waste wasn't properly handled at all. In fact, it was simply dumped in the laguna in Abidjan (there are some nice photos here). As you might expect, many people got sick, some died. A lawsuit was filed and damages were awarded. On Friday, an Ivoirian court decided that a local activist, Claude Gohourou, should distribute the 45 $million to the 30,000 victims. Now no one is sure that the people who suffered from the dumping of this stuff will see a payment.

Elections in Cote d'Ivoire Delayed Again

This has been coming for a long time, but on Wednesday, the head of the Ivoirian elections commission finally announced that the much anticipated presidential elections would be delayed, this time by two months. The ballot had been scheduled for November 29.

Why finally and this time you ask? Well, because Cote d'Ivoire's election has been delayed five times since 2005 now, each time for a different reason. Most of the delays stemmed from hurdles to voter identification and registration. These processes were finally completed but they led to uncertainty over the eligibility of about one million voters (if you want a good overview, visit the Cote d'Ivoire page on the Crisis Group website).

Now, on Abidjan radio stations a couple weeks ago, when it became clear the elections would have to be delayed, there was a lot of talk about whether these one million people were just people who had tried to register several times, or whether they were actually people with a right to vote. A main concern, given the nature of the Ivoirian conflicts, is that "foreigners" are not able to vote.

I don't know how much of a sample I got listening to the radio in taxicabs but on reliable stations like Radio France Internationale, the consensus seemed to be that a short delay would give the election much needed legitimacy. Still, both stations and local papers were suspicious of the President and his motivations. After all, he had just taken steps to appoint a new President of the Conseil Constitutionnel (the Constitutional Council which would adjudicate difficulties with the elections) and put in place a loyalist. Overall, the feeling I got in Abidjan and rebel-held Bouake was one of simmering tension and suspicion. I'll not use silly images here because you can imagine what they would be if I did.

So all this to say, keep an eye on the Ivoirian electoral process. I actually think this time the elections will be held in two months. They're basically organized, candidates are registered and campaigning has begun in earnest. But given the machinations to which both the President and Prime Minister are prone, these elections can't be D- elections. If they are even somewhat fraudulent, the elections commission and the constitutional council need to do their jobs in a fair way. One thing is for sure, as several French officers (both from Licorne and the UN) and UNOCI officials told me, the reduced French force (called Licorne--it has just under 800 troops mostly in Abidjan) and the 7,000 strong UN force won't be able to secure the country if the population decides it doesn't like the way the elections are handled.